Originally published 2018 · Updated for 2026
We first wrote about this in 2018. Everything we predicted then has gotten worse — and a few things we didn't predict have piled on. Here's an honest summary of what's driving HVAC costs higher year after year, and the few things you can still do about it.
R-22 (Freon) — the refrigerant in most pre-2010 systems — has been completely phased out of production since 2020. If your system uses R-22 and it leaks, the only "refrigerant" available is reclaimed gas at premium prices. We've seen R-22 recharges that used to cost $200 now exceed $1,000.
R-410A — the replacement for R-22, used in most systems built between 2010 and 2024 — is now itself being phased down. The EPA's AIM Act began restricting R-410A production in 2025, with a 40% cut from baseline. Prices are climbing fast, just like R-22 did.
R-454B and R-32 — the new generation. These mildly flammable A2L refrigerants are what new 2025+ systems use. Better for the environment, but the equipment that uses them is more expensive to design and manufacture.
If you have a working R-410A system, take care of it. Refrigerant maintenance and leak prevention is more important than ever.
Tariffs on Chinese steel, aluminum, and electronics have raised the cost of every major HVAC component over the last several years. Copper prices are up. Aluminum coils cost more. Circuit boards from overseas supply chains have had repeated shortages. None of this trend is reversing.
This is a quality story, not just a price story — but it ends up in your wallet. Most HVAC brands now outsource compressor production overseas to keep costs down. The compressors are cheaper, but they don't last as long. We see compressor failures at 6, 7, 8 years on systems that used to reliably go 15+. American Standard still builds their own compressors in-house, which is one of the main reasons we install them exclusively. Pay a little more once, replace half as often.
The skilled trades shortage is real and it's getting worse. Fewer people are entering HVAC, plumbing, and electrical apprenticeships. The technicians who are in the trade can charge more because demand is high. We're a small shop, but we feel this too — finding good, honest technicians who treat your home with respect is harder than ever.
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